By Dr. Jack Warner
If I were the Prime Minister of Trinidad & Tobago, I would treat the foreign exchange crisis, not as a banking inconvenience or a temporary imbalance but, as what it truly is: a national production emergency. Forex scarcity is quietly suffocating businesses, distorting prices, delaying imports, and eroding public trust. It is not just about dollars; it is about whether the economy can function.
My first step would be honesty. First, I would publish a Foreign Exchange Transparency Dashboard, updated monthly, to show how much foreign exchange enters the system, where it comes from, and where it goes. Energy exports, non-energy exports, tourism receipts, remittances, and state inflows would be clearly reported. People are far more willing to accept difficult reforms when they understand the numbers.
Next, I would stop the bleeding. Forex would be formally prioritized for essentials: food, medicine, medical equipment, students studying abroad, pharmaceuticals, critical manufacturing inputs, and export-enabling raw materials. This would not be left to informal bank discretion or political pressure. It would be rule-based, transparent, and time-bound. No country can talk about food security or healthcare resilience while allowing these sectors to queue endlessly for currency.
Within the first 30 days, I would unify state-generated foreign exchange. Today, dollars earned by state entities, energy companies, ports, utilities, and agencies are fragmented across accounts and timelines. As Prime Minister, I would centralize these flows under a single treasury-managed framework, ensuring that public dollars first serve public priorities. This alone would materially improve liquidity without borrowing a cent. But stopping the bleeding is not enough. The system itself is broken.
Over the next 90 days, I would launch a credible path toward a more flexible foreign exchange regime, phased carefully to protect vulnerable households. Fixed scarcity creates black-market behaviour, rent-seeking, and inefficiency. A controlled widening of the trading band, paired with targeted subsidies for essential goods, would allow price signals to function while cushioning social impact. Pretending the current system is sustainable only guarantees a more painful adjustment later.
At the same time, I would aggressively pursue export earnings discipline. Companies earning foreign exchange in Trinidad & Tobago must repatriate a defined portion within a clear timeframe. This is standard practice globally, not radical policy. Transfer pricing audits would be strengthened, not to harass legitimate business, but to ensure that profits generated here are not quietly parked elsewhere while the country starves for liquidity.
Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) would receive special attention. SMEs are being crushed by delayed inputs and unpredictable access to forex. I would establish a Fast-Track FX Window for export-oriented and import-critical SMEs, tied to performance metrics and compliance. If we want diversification, we must stop starving the very firms meant to diversify us.
Critically, I would communicate constantly. Forex reform fails when governments whisper. I would explain, repeatedly and plainly, that no Prime Minister can manufacture US dollars by decree. Dollars are earned through exports, services, tourism, and a stable economy. Policy can only allocate, incentivize, and reform.
There will be resistance. Some benefit from opacity. Some profit from scarcity. Some prefer delay because reform is politically uncomfortable, but leadership is not about comfort; it is about timing. And the timing is now.
Forex scarcity is already costing jobs, raising prices, and discouraging investment. Every month of indecision deepens the hole. Reform will be uncomfortable, but staying the course will ensure a slow strangulation of the economy.
If I were the Prime Minister, I would not promise miracles. I would promise clarity, fairness, and momentum. And within 120 days, the country would feel the difference, not because dollars suddenly rain from the sky, but because the system would finally begin to make sense.
