For a country whose modern identity has been shaped by oil and gas, Trinidad & Tobago has learned, sometimes painfully, that geology alone does not guarantee prosperity. Wells run dry, prices collapse, governments change, and optimism fades. That is why the news that ExxonMobil has commissioned deepwater seismic surveys offshore Trinidad & Tobago in early 2026 has stirred cautious interest rather than celebration. It feels less like a breakthrough and more like a quiet knock on the door of possibility.
From a geologist’s perspective, the interest makes sense. Trinidad & Tobago sits along the western edge of the Guyana–Suriname Basin, one of the most successful petroleum provinces discovered in recent decades. The rocks beneath our waters share a common geological history with those that transformed Guyana almost overnight. But geology is not destiny. Oil systems do not stop at maritime boundaries, yet neither do they promise commercial success simply because they exist. Seismic surveys are not declarations of discovery; they are questions being asked of the subsurface. What matters is that a company like Exxon is willing to ask those questions here.
From an economic and human standpoint, the implications begin long before any drill bit touches water. Seismic activity brings work: marine crews, port services, environmental specialists, and data analysts. For communities around Point Lisas, La Brea, and Port of Spain, it signals movement in an energy services sector that has felt the slowdown of recent years. For younger engineers, technicians, and geoscience graduates, it hints that their skills may still have a future at home.
But expectations must be realistic. Deepwater energy is slow. Even in the best-case scenario, years, often a decade or more, separate seismic surveys from first production. This will not solve today’s gas shortages or tomorrow’s budget debates. The real danger lies in overselling the moment, allowing hope to outrun evidence, and repeating cycles of boom and disappointment that Caribbean societies know too well.
One can also see this moment through a development lens. If hydrocarbons remain part of Trinidad & Tobago’s future, then the conversation must be about what they are for. Revenue without purpose does little. The real value lies in using any future energy rents to build resilience: diversifying exports, strengthening education and technical training, investing in climate adaptation, and reducing vulnerability to external shocks. Oil and gas should be a bridge, not a destination.
There is also a global reality to acknowledge. The world is changing its energy system, unevenly and imperfectly, but unmistakably. Investors are cautious. Capital is disciplined. Environmental scrutiny is intense. That means Trinidad & Tobago’s competitiveness will depend as much on governance, transparency, and environmental credibility as on what lies beneath the seabed. Seismic interest can open doors, but policy choices determine whether investors walk through them.
In human terms, Exxon’s seismic work is not a promise. It is an invitation to think carefully, plan soberly, and act responsibly. It reminds us that the ground beneath our waters may still hold value, but the real test lies above the surface: in how wisely we manage opportunity, uncertainty, and expectation.
Sometimes progress does not arrive with fanfare. Sometimes it begins with a survey line quietly drawn across the sea, asking a question whose answer depends as much on us as on the earth below.
